The photovoltaic film is sandwiched between the top and bottom of the photovoltaic cell, and one cell should be equipped with two photovoltaic films. There are three kinds of film, EVA, POE and EPE (EVA+POE mixed); the biggest difference between them is that the former is cheaper than the latter, and the performance of the former is worse than that of the latter, which is a good explanation of the principle of getting what you pay for. At present, the mainstream of the market is mainly EVA film.

Photovoltaic film plays a role in encapsulating and protecting solar cell modules, which can improve the photoelectric conversion efficiency of modules and prolong the service life of modules. Since the packaging process of photovoltaic modules is irreversible, and the operating life of battery modules is required to be more than 25 years, once the film of the battery module begins to yellow and crack, the battery is easy to fail and be scrapped, so even if the absolute value of the film is not high, However, it plays an important role in the quality and life of photovoltaic modules.

As an auxiliary material for photovoltaic modules, the technical route is relatively stable. No matter how the cell block technology changes, the demand for the adhesive film will remain stable, and there will be no substitutes in the foreseeable future. If there is a change, it should be an upgrade within the system, such as upgrading from the current ordinary transparent EVA to white EVA or POE or EPE.

In the composition of photovoltaic film, the direct raw material resin accounts for nearly 90%, and the remaining 10% is the manufacturing cost and labor. The raw material resin has two types: EVA and POE. Through the process, the corresponding EVA film and POE film can be produced respectively. At present, POE resin is produced, all of which rely on imports, and are used by Dow Chemical Company (Dow, market share 42%), ExxonMobil (ExxonMobil, market share 19%), Mitsui Chemicals (Mitsui, market share 19%) ), South Korea’s SK Group (16% market share), South Korea’s LG Group (1% market share) and other overseas companies occupy 97% of the global share.

Wanhua Chemical started to develop POE resin a few years ago, and it has now reached the pilot stage. It is expected to achieve a production capacity of 200,000 tons by 2025; Sinopec Tianjin Nangang 1.2 million tons/year and downstream high-end new material industry cluster projects, The POE unit with a production capacity of 100,000 tons/year is expected to be put into operation in 2023 at the earliest. In addition, Wison and Jingbo Petrochemical also have POE projects. In the next few years, with the gradual implementation of POE projects of major domestic chemical manufacturers, the current situation of being strangled overseas can be effectively alleviated.

Therefore, the current domestic photovoltaic film companies basically refer to EVA film, and its upstream basically refers to EVA resin (because of its shape, it is also called EVA particles).

According to the forecast of the Photovoltaic Association, the new installed capacity of photovoltaics in the world will reach 1050~1295GW in 2021-2025, of which the newly installed capacity in China will reach 355~440GW. That is to say, the world's newly installed photovoltaic capacity will increase by an average of 210-259GW in the next five years (a compound annual growth rate of 19-22%). Theoretically, every GW of photovoltaics requires 0.43 million tons of EVA particles and 10 million square meters of photovoltaic film, which means that an average of 903-1.114 million tons of EVA particles and 2.1-2.59 billion square meters of photovoltaic film are needed every year. Since there is a process of global photovoltaic climbing, the seller predicts that the median new installed capacity of photovoltaics in the world this year and next year will be 160 and 203GW respectively, corresponding to 736,000 tons of EVA particles/1.6 billion square meters of film, 934,000 tons of EVA particles/20.3 million square meters of film.

As of the end of 2020, the global production capacity of EVA particles has exceeded 5 million tons, but the production capacity of photovoltaic-grade EVA particles is only 650,000 tons, accounting for 32.5%; the rest of EVA is mainly used in foaming, cables, film materials, coating, hot melt adhesives Etc., the content of these VA materials is lower than that of photovoltaic materials. There are only three domestic manufacturers with the production capacity of mass production of photovoltaic EVA materials, namely Sierbang, Lianhong Xinke and Ningbo Formosa Plastics, and the cumulative production capacity of photovoltaic EVA particles is less than 400,000 tons. The domestic production market share of Sierbang (a subsidiary of Dongfang Shenghong's actual controller), Lianhong Xinke and Ningbo Formosa Plastics is 63% (200,000 tons of photovoltaic EVA particles), 18%, and 19%, respectively. This year, the production capacity of Sierbang, Lianhong and Formosa PV-grade EVA particles is planned to increase by 80,000 tons year-on-year, that is, the total global photovoltaic-grade EVA particles in 2021 will be 730,000 tons. Tightly balanced.

In 2020, the global output of photovoltaic materials is about 553,000 tons, of which only Lianhong, Sierbang (a company under the actual controller of Dongfang Shenghong), and Ningbo Formosa Plastics can stably produce and supply photovoltaic materials. The total output of the three companies in 2020 will be about It was 145,000 tons, accounting for only 26.2%.

From 2022 to 2025, the existing photovoltaic-grade EVA particle production capacity can release very limited space. Domestic 90,000 tons + overseas 90,000 tons = 180,000 tons, totaling 910,000 tons. Since the expansion cycle of photovoltaic EVA is as long as 4-5 years, the cycle from start-up to production is about 2.5-3 years; the gradual ramp-up cycle from low VA content products is about 1-2 years, and the rhythm of production capacity release is the uncertainty of industry supply largest source. The film expansion time is short, only half a year to one year, and the production capacity can be expanded in a relatively short period of time.

By the end of 2020, the total production capacity of the photovoltaic film industry was about 1.92 billion square meters, and the shipment volume was 1.6 billion square meters. Among them, the top four in terms of market share are Foster (54.06%), Haiyou New Materials (13.31%), Swick (10.19%) under Risen Energy, and Saiwu Technology (4.19%). Accounted for 82% of the global market share; Foster is the leader of the global photovoltaic film.

Foster, Swick, Haiyou New Materials, and Saiwu Technology all mentioned expansion plans in mid-2020. If the expansion goes smoothly, the total long-term production capacity of these four companies will total 3.271 billion square meters in 2024. To meet the global average annual demand of 2.1-2.59 billion square meters of photovoltaic film in the next five years.

In summary, photovoltaic EVA is in a tight balance this year, and there will be a gap in supply next year; it will also indirectly affect the expansion plan of its downstream photovoltaic film companies. This is like the relationship between photovoltaic EVA is equivalent to industrial silicon, and photovoltaic film is equivalent to silicon material.

business model:

The production equipment in the film industry mainly includes mixing kettles, extruders, die forming, etc. The average price is 2 million yuan per set. Calculated on the basis that a single GW module requires 10 million square meters of film, the corresponding investment in film equipment is 10-20 million yuan / GW, which is far lower than the equipment investment in silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells and other links (all higher than 1 billion/GW).

As a whole, plastic film enterprises are asset-light operation mode, and their fixed assets account for less than 15% of total assets; while their upstream tree refers to particle enterprises, on the contrary, they are asset-heavy operations, with fixed assets accounting for 50%+. However, it should be noted that although the plastic film is an asset-light operation, it has higher requirements for its operating capital. The downstream of the plastic film is the component industry. The settlement methods are mainly bank acceptance bills and commercial acceptance bills. Usually, 6-month bills are paid after 3 months (the popular understanding is that accounts receivable are 3 months, and the payment cycle is 6 months). It is equivalent to an account period of 9 months; secondly, when the film company purchases goods from the upstream resin particle enterprises, it is necessary to pay before the goods or pay in advance. Compared with other links, the three-month account period is missing. Therefore, the operating capital of the film enterprise needs to be prepared for nearly 12 months.

To sum up, film companies are in a weak position in the upstream and downstream. However, since the adhesive film accounts for 8.3% of the module cost and is relatively important, the upstream price increase cost can often be passed on to the downstream module smoothly.